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Date: Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Déjà vu All Over Again for TriLogics Owners

If you hadn’t heard the news, Black Caviar won again last Saturday the 18th of February. And once again, the race did not qualify as a TriLogics trading race. Ouch! But if you’ve been paying attention to our recent news posts, it’s possible that this time you joined other TriLogics owners and found a way to capitalise on Black Caviar’s success. Not that we’re officially recommending that. We’re simply sharing what we’ve heard. More on that shortly. Other than that, Saturday wasn’t a great trading day. Overall, we posted 4 negative outcomes out of 7 qualifying Trifectas. However, one owner sent a message about his great results for the day and mentioned BR06. So, in the spirit of the old saying “You’re either winning or you’re learning” let’s see if there are some worthwhile lessons that might help TriLogics owners in the future.

For the second year in a row Black Caviar and Hay List finished 1-2 in the Lightning Stakes at Flemington. (It must be frustrating to be the owner of an excellent horse like Hay List while a legendary horse like Black Caviar is in its prime.) Unfortunately for TriLogics owners, Black Caviar’s Win Dividend of 1.2 was too low for the race to qualify as a trading race. But, as we’ve discussed in past weeks, that hasn’t stopped some TriLogics owners from taking advantage of the great horse’s amazing record.

This past Saturday, MR06 was the 1000m Lightning Stakes at Flemington. Black Caviar (#7) was the favourite by a mile, with a red Money Gap of over 5. Hay List (#2), was the second favourite with a red Money Gap of 1.7. So, if you were going to trade on this race—and we want to emphasise that we will not include this as a qualifying race in our web site figures—it would be clear that #7 would be the sole selection for 1st place and #2 would be the sole selection for 2nd place. (Remember, you should always be looking for big Money Gaps and these are the kind of Money Gaps that really stand out.) Moving on to 3rd place selections, the money invested on the next 3 runners (#’s 9, 3, and 4) indicates those were the ones to take for 3rd. At this point you would have covered more than 90% of the money. With these selections, you could have made $813.

Fortunately for the public, it looks like Black Caviar will have another race in Australia before heading to the UK for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. Currently, it looks like her last run in Australia will be in Queensland or South Australia. But the larger principle behind this “Black Caviar Lesson” still applies. Look for those huge red Money Gaps for 1st and 2nd place. When you see those, and everything is still clean after making your 3rd place selections, make your trade and be confident.

Let’s move on to the message from the owner who said he had a great day last Saturday. The only specific race that he mentioned was SR06. According to the figures posted on our web site SR06 had a positive outcome of $609. It sounded like the TriLogics owner made $700. Let’s investigate the discrepancy between the figures. For the figures posted on our web site we took the top 3 runners for 1st and 2nd place because they held the bulk of the money (72%). We selected the next five runners (#8,#7,#11,#3, and #5)) for 3rd place, because they clearly formed the group holding secondary money and ended on a red Money Gap. Those selections would have returned $609. So, where did our owner’s extra $100 of profit come from? It seems that he must have left off runner #5 for 3rd place to get that extra $100. Although leaving that runner off would increase profit we can’t recommend it. Remember: red Money Gaps highlight significant separations between Win Dividends. That’s what you want to look for to make money on a consistent basis. 

 

 

Date: Wednesday, February 15, 2012

High Noon at the TriLogics Corral

OK, so we mixed a couple of movie titles together up above, but that’s not the main point. The main point for TriLogics owners is that, like some of those old westerns, a couple of last Saturday’s races are definitely worth a second look. Hopefully, you had a good first look at both SR01 and SR02 on the 11th of February. As an added attraction, we’ll also take a look at MR06 later in the day.

High Noon
In addition to being the title of the Academy Award winning classic starring Garry Cooper, it was also the start time for SR01. As it happened, this first race of the day qualified as a TriLogics Trifecta. As in “High Noon”, nothing fancy happened—it was a straight MG selection race. TriLogics guidelines recommended selecting: to runner #3 and a red MG for 1st place, covering 59% of market share; to runner #1 for 2nd place, covering 76% of market share; and to runner # 5 for 3rd place. If you had traded according to these TriLogics recommendations and our website guidelines you could have taken a very early profit of $390 a couple of minutes past noon.

Everybody Loves a Winning Sequel
The next TriLogics trading race of the day was SR02, which started just 35 minutes after the day’s first winner. Like the preceding race, SR02 was also a standard Money Gap selection Trifecta. Our guidelines recommend taking up to the red Money Gap at runner #9 for 1st place, covering 54% of the money; up to the second red Money Gap at runner #4 for 2nd place, covering 85% of the money; and the rest of the field for 3rd place. Having done this you should have noted that selections for all 3 finish positions had clearly defined “money grouping”. If you’re not sure what we mean check the race history in TriLogics and you’ll see how “clean” each group was. TriLogics owners trading like this could have profited $224 on this race.

Double Feature
This same race, SR02, also qualified as a Percentage Return (PR) race. Remember: It only takes a single mouse click to check if a race qualifies under PR as well. Once you check the PR tab you should noted that the top 2 runners were clearly the strongest runners. In all fairness, this PR win only provided a modest return of $79, but combined with the other two trades of the day you could have been looking at a $690 profit after just 35 minutes of trading.

The Return of Black Bart…make that Black Caviar
Owners who had pocketed nearly $700 by 12:35pm from the previous races might have decided to wait and see what would happen when Black Caviar tried to make it 18 straight victories in the CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield at 3:50pm (MR06). As has been the case for some time now, Black Caviar was such a strong favorite ($1.10) that the race did not qualify as a trading race. Nevertheless, owners with solid profits in their pockets might have decided to take a chance. We don’t recommend that, but we understand it.

If you chose to ignore the fact that this race was NOT a qualifying race because runner #8’s (Black Caviar) $1.10 Win Dividend  was too small you would have noticed that it also had a red Money Gap of 7.64. That alone would cement her as the sole choice for 1st place. The second favourite (#9, Southern Speed—last year’s winner of the Caulfield Cup) also had a strong red Money Gap of 3.01, and would have been the sole selection for 2nd place, which would have covered 86% of the money. The next 2 runners (#6 and #2) covered 92% of the money and also ended on a red Money Gap. So, could Black Caviar’s “sure win” status help a bold trader who went against the guidelines? With the selections as outlined above, they could have made a profit of $871 on a $400 trade.

Can we recommend it? Absolutely not. On the other had, if you were one of the owners who ignored the guidelines because of Black Caviar’s status we can hardly blame you. In fact, we congratulate you on succeeding with your bold move. That’s probably why the saying, “Fortune favours the bold” has been around for nearly 2000 years. It even sounds like the title of a great western, don’t you think?

 

 

Date: Thursday, February 9, 2012

“Friday on My Mind”

Are you old enough to remember the Sydney band called The Easybeats? How about their #1 hit “Friday on My Mind”? Whether you admit remembering it or not, it’s a great pop tune and, like the band, TriLogics has Friday on its mind, too—Friday night that is. And for a very good reason: it’s looking more and more like there’s cash to be made on Friday nights. Here’s how…

Racing New South Wales, Racing Victoria, and the Australian Turf Club have all been promoting Friday night racing lately. At the moment they are still “crunching their numbers” and deciding whether or not they are going to expand night thoroughbred racing. TriLogics Group has no hard info on whether it will expand or not, but we think it looks promising. While the big racing organizations figure out what they’re going to do, TriLogics is collecting data and doing our own analysis on potential profits to be made by our owners. The verdict? Initial information shows there are definitely money making possibilities available.

Over the years, some TriLogics owners have reported that they use the software to trade greyhound and the trots at night. Although we encourage owners to explore many options, and we’re fully aware the software can be used on these other forms of racing, our website results are strictly based on thoroughbred racing during the day. But with the increased promotion of Friday night thoroughbred racing we decided to take a look at a recent Friday (the 3rd of February) as one example to see how TriLogics trading would have turned out.

In fact, TriLogics owners could have made themselves a quite a nice profit if they had traded according to our website guidelines. (Once again, we want to stress that our website figures currently do NOT include any night races.)

We analysed that Friday night’s races with a senior trainer and we found that trading looked quite good. Moonee Valley’s MR03 at 7:45pm would have qualified as a fairly straight-forward Trifecta trading race. If you had covered the top 2 runners for 1st place, the top 4 runners for 2nd place, and the top 10 runners for 3rd place and had traded according to our website guidelines you could have made a tidy profit of $367 for the race. Not a bad way to start a Friday night.

Then, just 3 races later, MR06 also qualified as another fairly standard Trifecta race. In this race, our guidelines would have recommended taking the top 3 runners for 1st and 2nd place, and the rest of the field for 3rd place. If you had followed these recommendations and traded the same levels posted on our website you could have added another $457 to your account. With those two races, you could have pocketed over $800 for the night, and that would have been a great way to start off your weekend.

Remember our website figures don’t include these numbers, but we are in the process of analysing the data and will post our final assessment on our website when all the info is in. In the meantime, you might want to keep an eye on these night races. As it turned out last week, there could be some great money making opportunities.

 

 

Date: Wednesday, January 11, 2012

“It Happened in December: The TriLogics Story”

Hollywood has made an industry out of people who hang in there when the going gets tough: think of Sylvester Stallone in Rocky, Tim Robbins in Shawshank Redemption or Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness among thousands of others. It might sound corny, but the reason these movies strike a chord with audiences is that they inspire us to persevere when we hit rough patches in our own lives. It happens in life and it happened last month with TriLogics.

We’ll admit it, we received a few emails and calls in the middle of December asking us what was going on since December is often one of the better trading months of the year. Well, we don’t like down periods any more than you do, but what happened starting on the 23rd of December, right when most people were breaking for Christmas, is what usually happens if you persevere with TriLogics: the figures started climbing back up. In fact, the combined Trifecta and Percentage Return figures climbed above $400 every single day between the 23rd and the 31st except for the 28th.

Don’t worry we’re not going to try to shop this story around to Spielberg or Scorsese with some kind of Christmas Miracle pitch. In fact, we’d much rather make a boring movie where all TriLogics owners make tons of money every single trading day. But no producer would buy a script like that and no one would want to see it. It wouldn’t be exciting, it wouldn’t be real, and, unfortunately, it wouldn’t be TriLogics. But that’s OK. There are rough patches in everything in life worth doing. The point is to persevere, get through the rough patches and prosper in the end. That’s what makes for good movies and it’s what makes for successful TriLogics users.

While we’re looking back on 2011 another thing to take note of is that our website figures for the year ended up at $58,567. It’s not quite as strong as 2010’s figures, but it’s more than $2,200 above our yearly average figure for the 7 financial years from 2004 – 2011, which is a great figure for any business.

Plus, 2012 started off with a bang for Trifecta, too. On the 2nd of January (the New Year’s Day Holiday) in the very first qualifying Trifecta, SR02, our guidelines would have recommended selecting the top 2 runners for 1st place covering 56% of the money, with a Money Gap of 1.97. To fill out your selections we would have recommended taking the next four runners for 2nd and 3rd place. If you had traded according to our web site guidelines that could have resulted in a $601 profit. And if that were a movie, our guidelines would recommend the title: “Won and Done: Happy New Year!” Now, let’s get to work on the sequel.

 

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